What Do You Think You Know? Audit Your Assumptions
We think we know a lot, but seldom do.
An assertion and an assumption are materially similar. An assumption is a hunch, and an assertion is an educated guess. An assumption is your belief about something without any solid proof, and an assertion, particularly if made with bravado, sounds true and can often be backed up with evidence. So, while it’s important to remember that assumptions can be wrong, assertions can also be challenged by others if the evidence isn’t strong enough. I’ll use the word assumption because you probably assume more than you assert, if we’re being honest.
If you’re going through several changes in your life that have caused you to second-guess many of your assumptions, this may be an excellent time to check yourself.
Those who have worked with me know I’m not shy about admitting what I don’t know. Those who have lived with me, know I’m not shy about sharing what I think I know, and as endearing as I may like to believe that trait is, I reluctantly acknowledge that it flirts with arrogance.
Here’s an exercise I do every few years. It’s not for the faint of heart because it’s best done for three months.
Begin a 90-day daily ritual of recording your assumptions in a notebook. You’ll gain interesting insight into what you actually know and what you don’t know. Besides reinforcing the discipline of writing something every day, this exercise aims to evaluate which of your assumptions are correct and which are wrong.
The scope of your assumptions can be pretty broad. Family and business issues can easily share space with political and sports predictions. The focus is up to you.
I challenge you to try this exercise yourself. Record your assumptions every day for 90 days. Jot down an assumption (or assertion) as it enters your mind (or perhaps after you’ve proclaimed it in a meeting.) Include the date and move on. You don’t need to dwell on it.
Know that this is an imperfect exercise and might be skewed by your confirmation bias. Be brave and open to evidence that contradicts your assumptions.
Also, ninety days is a sizable commitment. If that’s too much for you, run the experiment for a shorter period and focus on a specific area where you want to challenge your assumptions.
If you’re daring and adventurous, you could adapt this exercise for teams to improve communication and identify shared biases that might impact decisions. If you do this as a group, let me know, I’d love to hear how it went and what you learned.
After the first thirty days, review your notes and checkmark any assumptions proven true since you first made them. Place an X next to those that were false. If there is not enough information yet, leave it blank for now. Don’t get cute about it and say one was mostly true or conditionally valid.
Repeat this after 60 and 90 days, if you go that long. You’ll learn what you feel confident asserting your opinion about and how often you’re right. You’ll learn who or what influences your assumptions, and what kind of influence you have on various outcomes. You will learn something about yourself.
Don’t get hung up on the results. It’s simply information. I reviewed one of my old logs with 90 days of data. I learned that 56% of my assertions were correct, 25% were incorrect, and 19% were pending resolution.
Those stats filled me with a sense of pride and confidence. Knowing that my instinctual assertions on various subjects were correct well over 50% of the time (and closer to 69% if I ignored the pending assumptions) was very appealing to me — and only me. The true value of the exercise is growth and self-awareness. You see, most others won’t really care about your daily assumptions, because being a person who is often right doesn’t hold a candle to the one who is most often kind.
Endeavor to frequently be both; right and kind.
P.S. You can log your assumptions on an app or on anything you carry around with you. A self-labeled notebook isn’t required to do this. But if you want one, check out Leadershirts Plus:
